Major League Soccer is one of the trickiest leagues to predict. Unlike the NBA or NFL, soccer is low-scoring, draws happen frequently, and home advantage is massive. Here is how to sharpen your MLS predictions on PredictVS and climb the contest leaderboards.

Home Advantage Is Huge in MLS

MLS has one of the strongest home-field advantages in North American professional sports. Home teams win roughly 50% of matches, with draws accounting for about 25% and away wins just 25%. The reasons are layered — long travel distances across time zones, artificial turf at some venues, altitude in Colorado and Utah, and passionate supporter sections that genuinely affect the game.

When you see two similarly ranked teams facing off, lean toward the home side. This is especially true for teams like Seattle, Portland, and Atlanta, whose home records consistently outperform their road form. On your PredictVS prop sheet, the home edge is one of the most reliable factors you can use.

Draws Are Not Flukes — They Are Features

In the NBA, ties are impossible. In the NFL, they are freak events. In MLS, draws happen in roughly one out of every four matches. If you are ignoring the draw as an outcome, you are leaving value on the table.

Look for matches where two mid-table teams meet, especially on the road team's conference turf. Games between defensively solid sides — think teams coached by managers who prioritize shape over attack — draw more often. When the moneyline odds on a draw are +250 or higher and the matchup fits, that is a high-value prediction on PredictVS.

Low-Scoring Games Dominate

The average MLS match produces about 2.8 total goals. That means overs on totals set at 3.5 hit less often than casual fans expect. When you are filling out your prop sheet, keep this in mind:

Under 2.5 goals is a strong play when two defensive teams meet, especially early in the season when rosters are still gelling.
Over 3.5 goals works best when a high-pressing team like LAFC or Cincinnati faces a side that plays an open, attacking style.
First-half unders are especially reliable — many MLS matches are 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime.

Conference Play and Travel

MLS splits into Eastern and Western Conferences, and inter-conference matches involve brutal travel. A team from Portland flying to Miami for a midweek match is at a significant disadvantage beyond what the standings suggest. Factor in travel distance and time zone changes when making your picks.

Within-conference matchups are more predictable because the teams know each other well. Rivalries like LA Galaxy vs LAFC, Portland vs Seattle, and NYCFC vs Red Bulls produce passionate, tight games that frequently go under on the total.

Form vs Table Position

MLS table positions can be misleading, especially in the first two months of the season when some teams have played three more matches than others. Instead of looking at the standings, check a team's form over their last five matches. A team sitting 8th in the table but on a four-match unbeaten run is a much better pick than a team sitting 3rd but winless in their last three.

Pay particular attention to goal-scoring form. If a team has scored in each of their last six matches, their attack is clicking regardless of their overall record. Similarly, a team that has kept three clean sheets in five games is in strong defensive form.

Roster Turnover and the Summer Window

MLS has a unique roster structure with Designated Players, international slots, and a mid-season transfer window. When a team adds a new DP in the summer, it can take 3-4 weeks for the player to integrate. Do not immediately upgrade your predictions for a team that just signed a big name — wait until you see them on the field together.

Conversely, teams that lose a key player to a European transfer mid-season often struggle for several weeks. Track these moves and adjust your predictions accordingly.

Start Predicting MLS on PredictVS

MLS runs from late February through October, giving you months of prediction opportunities. Browse the lobby to find MLS contests, join one, and start filling out prop sheets. The low-scoring nature of soccer means every correct prediction counts — and the predictors who understand draws, home advantage, and form will rise to the top.