On PredictVS, every correct prediction earns points based on real sportsbook odds. Pick a -250 favorite and you get a modest payout. Pick a +200 underdog and your points double. This scoring system means that underdog picks are the fastest way to climb the standings — if you can get them right.

But picking underdogs blindly is a recipe for a tanked accuracy rate. The trick is knowing when the odds are offering real value and when the favorite deserves its price.

How Odds-Based Scoring Changes the Game

In a traditional pick'em pool, every correct pick is worth the same. That rewards volume and favoring favorites. On PredictVS, the math is different. Two correct underdog picks can be worth more than five correct favorite picks.

This does not mean you should pick underdogs everywhere. It means you should think about expected value: how often will this underdog actually win, and how much am I earning when they do?

When to Fade the Favorite

These are the situations where underdog picks have the most value:

Back-to-back games: In the NBA and NHL, teams playing their second game in two nights are significantly worse. If the favorite is on a back-to-back and the underdog is rested, the gap is smaller than the odds suggest.
Travel and schedule spots: A West Coast team playing an early East Coast game, or a team on the tail end of a long road trip, will underperform. If that team is the favorite, the underdog has value.
Motivation mismatches: Late-season games where the favorite has nothing to play for but the underdog is fighting for a playoff spot. The effort gap shows up more than people think.
Divisional and rivalry games: These are historically closer than the odds imply. The underdog knows the opponent, plays harder, and covers at a higher rate.
Starting pitcher mismatches (MLB): If the underdog has their ace on the mound and the favorite is rolling out a back-end starter, the talent gap narrows fast.

When to Stick With the Favorite

Not every underdog is worth your pick. Avoid fading the favorite in these spots:

Massive talent gaps: When a top-3 team hosts a bottom-5 team, the favorite usually earns its price. The points are small, but the probability is high.
Playoff games: Home favorites in the playoffs are more reliable than regular-season home favorites. The intensity is higher and the better team usually wins.
When the line has already moved toward the underdog: If the underdog opened at +250 and is now +150, the market has already priced in whatever edge you spotted. The value is gone.

The Sweet Spot: Small Underdogs

The best value on PredictVS tends to be with small underdogs — teams priced around +110 to +180. These are close games where either team could win, but the underdog payout is meaningfully better than the favorite payout. Over a full season, targeting these spots consistently adds up.

Big underdogs (+300 and above) are tempting because of the huge payouts, but they lose far more often than they win. Use them sparingly — one or two a week at most, in spots where you have a genuine reason to believe the upset will happen.

A Practical Approach

Start each night by looking at the full slate of games in the lobby.
Identify the favorites you feel confident about and lock those in.
For the remaining games, ask: is there a reason this underdog could win tonight? If yes, take the underdog. If not, either take the favorite or skip the game entirely.
Track your results in personal analytics. Over time, you will learn which underdog spots are your strongest.

The leaderboard does not reward people who pick favorites on every game. It rewards people who know when the odds are wrong — and have the conviction to take the other side.