Not all sports are created equal when it comes to predictability. Some have more randomness baked in, while others reward knowledge more consistently. If you are trying to build your Elo rating on PredictVS, understanding which sports are easier to predict — and why — can help you allocate your time and picks more strategically.

The Predictability Spectrum

Sports generally fall on a spectrum from more predictable to more random. Here is the rough order, based on how often favorites win:

NBA (most predictable) — Favorites win roughly 65-68% of the time in the regular season. The best team almost always beats the worst team. Talent gaps are massive and hard to overcome in a single game.
NFL — Favorites win about 65-67% of the time, but the single-elimination playoff format and weekly schedule create more upsets than the NBA.
MLB — Favorites win around 56-58% of the time. Baseball is famously random on a game-to-game basis. The best team in baseball loses 60+ games a year.
NHL — Favorites win about 55-58% of the time. Hockey's low-scoring nature and goaltending variance make it one of the hardest sports to predict.
MLS (most random) — Soccer in general has high draw rates and low scoring, which compresses the gap between favorites and underdogs. MLS adds roster parity and travel fatigue.

Why the NBA Is the Most Predictable

Basketball gives the better team the most opportunities to prove it. Games have 200+ possessions, which means a larger sample size within a single game. Star players handle the ball on nearly every possession and can single-handedly dictate outcomes. The variance of a single lucky bounce matters less when there are 100 field goal attempts.

For PredictVS players, this means NBA winner picks are the safest foundation for your Elo rating. You will not earn as many points per correct pick (because the odds on favorites are lower), but you will get them right more often.

Why Hockey and Baseball Are Harder

In hockey, a hot goalie can steal any game. A team that outplays their opponent for 58 minutes can lose on one bad bounce. The sport is inherently chaotic on a per-game basis.

Baseball is driven by the starting pitching matchup, which introduces huge variance. A #5 starter having a good night against an ace having a bad night flips the entire game. Plus, the sample of at-bats per game per player is tiny — one batter might get 4 plate appearances, which is not enough for skill to dominate luck.

What This Means for Your Strategy

Knowing the predictability of each sport helps you make better decisions about where to spend your picks:

Protect your Elo in the NBA. If you need a safe floor, lean into NBA predictions. Your accuracy should be highest here, and the consistency protects your rating from big drops.
Hunt for value in the NHL and MLB. Because these sports are harder to predict, the odds on underdogs are more generous. If you have a genuine edge on a specific game — a goalie matchup you like, a pitcher you trust against a struggling lineup — the payoff is bigger.
Be cautious with MLS. Soccer draws are frequent and the favorite/underdog distinction is blurrier. If you know MLS well, there is definitely an edge to be had, but it is a higher-variance sport where even knowledgeable fans get burned.

Beyond Winner Picks

The predictability spectrum above applies mostly to game outcomes. Other prediction types have their own patterns:

Totals (over/under) are surprisingly consistent across sports. If you are good at projecting pace and scoring environments, totals can be a reliable scoring category.
Player props vary wildly. NBA player props (points, rebounds) are more stable than NHL player props (goals) because basketball stats have a larger in-game sample.
Spreads are designed to be coin flips. They are hard in every sport, but a correct spread pick earns solid points because the odds are always close to even.

The Bottom Line

There is no single "easiest" sport — it depends on your knowledge and the prediction type. But if you are new to PredictVS and want to build a foundation, start with NBA winner picks and totals. They are the most forgiving, and the consistency will help your Elo while you learn the platform.

From there, expand into the sports and markets where you have genuine expertise. Check your personal analytics regularly — the data will tell you where your edge actually is, which might surprise you.